Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Store Championship
decks
2
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
3-4-0
overall winrate
42.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.6%
avg ELO -0.2 per match
expected value
44.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1196
· median 1196
· range 1156–1236
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1045
Q1 1143
Q3 1269
1652
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 15.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.6% | -2.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 15.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.6 |
| Wind Allies | 15.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Fire Exia | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
